The COVID-19 pandemic

This notebook uses the NYT github repository to analyze the progression of COVID-19 throughout the US states. The analyses contained herein are not meant to be used as primary literature on their own, and may have mistakes. I make no claims as to the accuracy of my calculations.

The questions I am interested in asking regarding this pandemic are fairly straightforward:

* What is the case fatality rate through time?
* What do the case / death curves look through time?
* Are the curves flattening?

I have used the 2019 population census projections to normalize data by population, and I also used the census bureau areas to compute population density.

To compute per-day difference, I was originally using a savgol_filter as implemented by scipy. As of April 26, 2020, I am using a Gaussian Kernel smoother with a 2 standard deviation bandwidth.

Loading the data

You can find the spreadsheets I downloaded here:

COVID in the total US

Epidemiological curves of COVID-19

I have plotted the cases and deaths through time in the plots below in 2 different ways. The first column shows the absolute number of cases (first row) or deaths (second row). The second column shows the number of cases (deaths) normalized to the population of each state. The second column can be interpreted as your risk of getting COVID-19 through time for any given state, since it tells you the number of cases (or deaths) per million people for each state.